FAO says rainy season failed across eastern Horn of Africa
Cyril Ferrand, resilience team leader for Eastern Africa at FAO, told reporters in Geneva that much of Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia received less than 60% of average rainfall. Some of the hardest-hit areas recorded below 30%, with certain locations experiencing virtually no effective rain. "Some areas are heading toward their driest season on record since 1981," Ferrand said, noting that in many regions this marks the second or third consecutive poor rainy season while communities are still recovering from the 2020–2023 drought.
The inadequate rainfall has already caused widespread crop losses in Somalia, with poor yields expected in eastern and central Kenya. Livestock conditions are also deteriorating, including reduced milk production and anticipated livestock deaths.
More than 185,000 people have been displaced by drought in Somalia, including at least 55,800 who have crossed into Ethiopia. Mogadishu declared a drought emergency on November 10.
Food insecurity, already severe in the region, is expected to worsen as lean seasons peak in 2026. Pastoral areas will be most affected from February to March, while agropastoral zones are projected to face challenges from April to June. Current estimates indicate 2.1 million people in Kenya and 4.4 million in Somalia are at high levels of food insecurity, with numbers likely to rise as the impact of the failed rains becomes clearer.
Ferrand emphasized that early action can prevent the drought from developing into a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The FAO has already allocated $4 million from its Special Fund for Emergencies and Resilience Activities for anticipatory measures, but warned that Somalia’s 2025 humanitarian plan remains only 24% funded.
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